Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
